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Sometimes The Only Risk is Not
Taking One
- One Leader's Perspective
By Greg L. Thomas
It
was a warm summer day in the 1930’s and one of the greatest American baseball players
of all time was at bat. The quiet, gentle man was Lou Gehrig, one of the best
hitters ever to wear the uniform of the New York Yankees. His durability as a
first baseman and consistent hitter earned him the nickname of the “Iron
Horse”. During this day Gehrig would do something totally out of character. As
the first pitch came at him, he swung and missed. “Strike One” bellowed
the umpire. Then came the next pitch. Again, the “Iron
Horse” swung and missed. “Strike Two” intoned
the umpire once again. On the third pitch Gehrig stood by and watched the ball
pass by him without even an attempted swing. “Strike Three…your
out!” the umpire shouted. Then something unusual happened! Lou Gehrig, one
of the classiest men ever to play baseball and a solid gentleman slammed down
his bat in disgust and was seen having a few words with the umpire. After the
game, a shocked media reporter asked him what he was complaining to the umpire
about. “Oh…I didn’t complain,” stated Gehrig. “I simply told him that I would
give one thousand dollars for a chance at that last ball again!” Within this
story is a powerful lesson for leaders to consider. Constructive accomplishment
requires decision. For a leader to rely on chance or luck to be a deciding
factor is to court disaster. Sometimes, the only risk is not taking one.
It
is understandable that we should want to avoid making decisions for a
number of reasons. First of all, it is often risky. Risk is defined as the
possibility of suffering harm, loss or danger. We tend to be comfortable in our
patterns and expectations. Often times making a decision means we must step out
of our “comfort zone” into the unknown. Through past experience we know that
even a slight shift in our course can have dramatic effects on what our lives will
be. Secondly, leaders often make decisions while they are slightly ahead of the
prevailing group or culture. It is often a lonely, thankless experience with
little visible support. This situation is compounded when the leader has not
taken the time and energy to build a strong consensus among others. Even on a
personal level, we may avoid or delay making decisions about our family,
careers or finances because of an aversion to risk and fear of failure.
But here is an
important fact about decision-making and risk. We will frequently come to a
crossroads in life or business where an important decision must be made.
We have a choice to make. Either we make the decision, or “time
and chance” will decide for us what we were unwilling to decide for ourselves!
Either way, a decision will be made. The question is, will we take charge and
assume greater control of the outcome, or will we allow luck or fate to
determine the outcome for us? There is an old story about two men drifting on a
raft traveling down the Niagara River toward the ominous Niagara Falls. They
began to argue about how far they were from the falls and when they should go
ashore. The argument continued…far too long. While they
delayed making a decision, time made the decision for them, with unfortunate
results.
An
example of this situation can be seen in the recent terrorist event experienced
in the United States. For many years, one event after another warned American
leaders that terrorism was at our shore. The 1993 World Trade Center Bombing was
a “wake up call” to a sheltered nation about the real threat of
terrorism. Six people died in the blast, which caused an estimated $600 million
in property and other economic damage. Trials that followed convicted six
people of carrying out the attack. In 1995, an American citizen bombed a
Federal Building in Oklahoma City causing the death of 168 people and injuring
more than 500, making it the deadliest terrorist attack at that time in the
United States. Other attacks again Americans included hijackings, embassy
bombings, and assaults against American ships in harbor. It was time for
leadership, and the courage to make some difficult decisions. American leaders
did what democratic leaders often do in this kind of a situation. In 1996, the
American Congress passed, and the President signed antiterrorism legislation to
strengthen the power of the federal government to respond to both international
and domestic terrorism. It was weak legislation intended to show citizens that something
was being done. But it should have been time for decisive action and
commitment. It would have required an enormous investment in resources and
greater government scrutiny. Political leaders were unwilling to make the tough
decisions. On September 11th, 2001 time decided for us what we were
unwilling to decide for ourselves.
The
purpose of this article is not to encourage you to lurch into ill-advised or
poor decision making. Leaders should seek the facts, get advice, do the
research and build support whenever possible. But there does come a time when a
decision…the decision must be made. It has been said that former
American President and World War II General Dwight D. Eisenhower once
commented, “A wrong decision is better than indecision”. Think about why a
military General would have made this comment. A wrong decision is at least a choice,
and if that choice is wrong there if often enough time to retrench, regroup and
alter the course. However, indecision only erodes precious time and often
removes the option of real choice from the decision maker. Again, sometimes the
only risk is not taking one. As author and educator Gary Dessler
states, “Very few decisions are forever; there is more “give” in most decisions
than we realize. While many major strategic decisions are hard to reverse, most
poor decisions won’t mean the end of the world for you, so don’t become frozen
in the finality of your decision”. Even Lou Gehrig got a chance to bat again
the very next day!
At the heart and core
of leadership is also the willingness to take personal responsibility for a
difficult decision. On June 6, 1944, in World War II, General Eisenhower
agonized over a difficult decision to allow Allied forces to land in Normandy,
France. The weather had been poor and threatened to derail the Allied assault.
A window of opportunity was closing and it was time for decisive action.
Eisenhower gave approval for the landing. However, he also took the time to
write an announcement to be broadcast in case the landing failed and the Allies
were unable to secure a beachhead. In the handwritten announcement, Eisenhower
accepted full responsibility for the failure. Thankfully, it was never needed!
Many
experts in management believe that not all decisions are the same. They
differentiate between what they call programmed and nonprogrammed
decisions. Programmed decisions are defined as ones that are repetitive and can
typically be resolved through rational analysis and mechanical procedures. It
is believed that the overwhelming majority of decisions we make are programmed
decisions. Standard rules of deduction can be applied to these decision types.
Of course this is easier said than done! This assumes one’s thinking is
rational and that the “standard rules of deduction” are sound and valid. On the
other hand, nonprogrammed decisions are
defined as novel and unique in nature. This includes crisis situations or when
we are at a personal crossroad in life. These decisions rely heavily on our
judgment and values rather than clear-cut analysis. They are typically more
urgent and require greater focus. These are the tough agonizing decisions that
may need to be based on incomplete information and unknown criteria. Sometimes
there is no clear choice of what is right or wrong. There may be little “black
and white” and mostly shades of gray. This is where we need to muster all the
creativity and intuition we can find deep within ourselves. Because these nonprogrammed decisions are usually strategic, the
risk and consequences can be greater.
Here
are a few tips to improve your decision-making ability. Recognize the facts as
they really are and not how you want to see them. It is easy to
ignore or reinterpret the facts because we are looking to support a conclusion
we desire. For example, those who study theology often fall prey to a problem
called proof-texting. This is where the theologian first comes to a conclusion,
and then looks for scriptures to support a preconceived belief. Maintain your objectivity so your decision is
based on an intelligent analysis of the actual facts and not a preconceived
decision. Don’t be afraid to use your intuition. This is where you
unconsciously make a decision based on accumulated experience and knowledge.
Having firm personal values and strong ethics add to the benefit of good
intuition. Psychiatrist Sigmund Freud stated,
“When
making a decision of minor importance I have always found it advantageous to
consider all the pros and cons. In vital matters, however, such as the choice of
a mate or a profession, the decision should come from the unconscious, from
somewhere within ourselves. In the important decisions of our personal life, we
should be governed, I think, by the deep inner needs of our nature.”
Obviously
if the deep inner needs of our nature are based on a foundation of
integrity and genuine concern for others, our intuition will serve us well.
Another decision-making tip is to be careful not to use shortcuts to save time.
A common shortcut is called heuristics. This is used to speed up
decision-making by applying “rules of thumb” to quickly reach a conclusion. For
example, a senior manager may say, “I only want individuals with advanced
degrees to apply for this position”. This may speed up the selection process,
but may also mean the best qualified individual is rejected. The final
tip I offer is to avoid anchoring. The trait of anchoring is where we
give too much credence to the first information or set of facts that we
hear. This first bit of information then becomes the benchmark by which the
decision will be made and later information that is contrary is
minimized.
The
next time you are confronted with the need to make a decision, I hope you will
remember the story of Lou Gerhig. It is better to choose
your own course and perhaps even go down “swinging” than to sit idly by and
allow luck or chance to make the decision for you. A leader’s calling is to
make the hard decisions when they are needed. Yes, there is a risk to
decision-making, but there is often a greater risk when we do nothing
and allow fate to decide for us. So be sure you gather the facts, get sound
advice, do the necessary research and try to build support from others. Then
make the decision, because sometimes the only risk is not taking one!
Comments
to: gthomas@leadingtoday.org
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About the author:
Greg has an extensive thirty-five years experience in public
speaking and has spoken to hundreds of audiences worldwide. Greg has a Master
of Arts degree in Leadership from
Bellevue University, where he also has served as an adjunct professor teaching
courses in business management and leadership since 2002. His first book, 52 Leadership Tips
(That Will Change How You Lead Others) was published
in 2006 by WingSpan Press. His second book, Making
Life's Puzzle Pieces Fit was published in March 2009. Both are available at
amazon.com. Greg is also the president of Leadership
Excellence, Ltd and a Managing Partner of the Leadership Management
Institute. Leadership
Excellence, Ltd. effectively builds
individuals and organizations to reach their highest potential through enhanced
productivity and personal development using a number of proven programs. He is also the president and founder
of weLEAD Incorporated.
References:
Dessler, Gary. Management – Leading People and Organizations in the 21st
Century. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2001
Fitzgerald,
Ernest A. Keeping Pace: Inspirations In The Air.
Greensboro, North Carolina: Pace Communications, Inc., 1988
Heilbroner, Robert. How To Make an Intelligent Decision. Think, December 1990,
pp. 2-4